Osun, a state in the South-West region of Nigeria, created in 1991, is gradually warming up for a decisive governorship election next year with high expectations on the part of the electorate. From the foregoing, political parties, including the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), which is ruling the state, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the emerging Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) are already strategising to record victory in the crucial election.
To the main opposition, PDP, in the state, no effort would be spared to wrest power from the APC-controlled administration of Governor Rauf Aregbesola. Pundits believe that for the opposition to really alter the current political equation in the state, dubbed Ipinle Omoluabi, they need to work extraordinarily hard in convincing the electorate to pitch their tent with the PDP in the polls. The herculean task of dislodging the incumbent governor, a political analyst said, could be very challenging.
Though 2014, when governorship election will hold may be far, there are pointers already that a raging political battle is in the offing. The APC leaders are exuding confidence of emerging victorious in the pending polls, brandishing what they described as the sterling performances of the state governor and his cabinet as potent tools for anticipated success.
But the PDP leaders are holding tenaciously to their belief that Osun people have never had it so bad as far as governance is concerned. The opposition party alleged that poverty has been on the increase among the people, while the economy of the state is on the decline. They described most of the official policies as not favourable to the -people, most especially the urban renewal programme, which had led to the demolition of many properties, structures and shops in Osogbo, the state capital. While the state government prefers to tag the demolition exercise “separation of structures” to pave way for the beautification of the state and beginning of urban renewal of nine cities in the state, in collaboration with the United Nations (UN) HABITAT, its critics contend that the controversial matter may be a major campaign issue in 2014.
Budding issues
Investigations indicated that some victims of the programme may become willing brides to the PDP as the opposition might explore the criticisms dogging the urban renewal projects to whip up political sentiments ahead the polls. Even, as the parties are preparing for the election year, there are contending issues within them that could make or mar their chances during the election. While some of them are currently battling with leadership tussles, others such as the PDP and the LP are locked down in factional squabbles. For instance, in the APC, the issue of who will be the substantive chairman remains the major palaver among the party’s stalwarts. Currently, the party is being led by Elder Adelowo Adebiyi in acting capacity. Other component parties that fused to form APC such as ANPP and CPC are contending that since the ACN would produce the governorship candidate, it is logical to concede the chairmanship of the party to them.
In the state’s PDP, the raging controversy over the polarisation of the party at the national level had spread to Osun, with some of the members declaring their support and loyalty to the Alhaji Kawu Baraje faction of the New PDP. About two weeks ago, some loyalists of the former governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who is the acting national secretary of Baraje’s group, stormed Okuku for a rally to register their unflinching loyalty to the New PDP and Oyinlola, who they described as their leader. The development, which drew the wrath of the state chapter of the PDP, culminated in the suspension of the former chairman of the party in the state, Alhaji Ademola Rasaq, and many others, by the chairman of the party, Alhaji Ganiyu Olaoluwa. To political analysts, the intra-party crisis in the PDP could pose a threat to the chances of the party ahead the 2014 election in Osun, taking into cognisance the 24-hour ultimatum given to three of its governorship aspirants: Senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi, Honourable Oluwole Oke and Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, by Olaoluwa, to dissociate themselves from Baraje’s faction or face stiffer sanctions.
The LP is not immune from factional crisis. There are also two factions in the state’s LP as the members are torn between Rufus Oyatoro and Daniel Afilaka’s executives. Oyatoro represents the interest of the defunct ACN, while Afilaka tilts towards the PDP and at the same time, enjoying the patronage of Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State.
But, the newly emerged UPN in the state is not plagued by any crisis. Nonetheless, the personality of its governorship candidate, Elder Segun Akinwusi, who had served both Oyinlola and Aregbesola as former Head of Service (HOS), may be his albatross because any view or position he may form about the previous governments might be perceived from a subjective point of view.
However, like an appetizer before the real menu, the political temperature in the state is on the high side as some governorship aspirants in the fold of the PDP are perfecting strategies to end the four-year reign of the incumbent governor.
Second term myth
Can Aregbesola break the myth or jinx of a second term, amidst the determination of PDP to stage a comeback to seat of power in Bola Ige House at Abere? Already, political heavyweights have shown interest in the PDP ticket, with all of them brandishing their academic and political credentials, coupled with subtle political maneuverings to outsmart each other. Those that have made their intention known in the PDP include Senator Iyiola Omisore (Osun East Senatorial District), Senator Akinlabi (Osun West Senatorial District), Alhaji Akinbade (Osun West Senatorial District), Honourable Oke (Osun East Senatorial District). The candidate of the UPN is Elder Akinwusi (Osun East Senatorial District), while the LP is parading Mr Akingbade Oyenekan, a lawyer, as its only governorship aspirant for now.
Senator Iyiola Omisore was a two-term senator of the Federal Republic, representing Osun East Senatorial District from year 2003 to 2011. He is eyeing the governorship seat again. Another notable PDP member is Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, who was the state chairman of PDP in 2003, when the party defeated the defunct AD. He became the secretary of Prince Oyinlola-led PDP government. A former minister for Youth Development, Senator Olasunkanmi is another PDP stalwart contesting for governorship. Ditto for Honourable Oke, from Esa-Oke, who is a two-term member of the House of Representatives, where he served as chairman of House Committee on Defence.
Horse trading
As the election year approaches, all the key parties have evolved varying plans and strategies to place them in good stead. The incumbent governor, Mr Aregbesola, has been at his wit’s end in formulating campaign strategies which are throwing up a number of issues concerning the state. One of them is the programme called Gbangba dekun, which brings the governor face-to-face with the vast majority of the people. It affords him an opportunity to give an account of his stewardship in a manner that has never been done before. According to the state Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Honourable Sunday Akere, the programme is an avenue for the people to ventilate their feelings about governance in their respective communities without fear or hinderance, as well as offer suggestions
Senatorial zones
Each of the three senatorial districts can boast of influential politicians. A number of them have either held appointive or elective offices at the federal level. Some others have served either at elective or appointive offices in the state. There are others that are current holding appointments or elective offices in the current dispensation.
A breakdown of the zones indicated that the Osun East Senatorial District comprises Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ife Central, Ife East, Ife North, Ife South, Ilesha East, Ilesha West, Obokun and Oriade local government areas. The battle for the zone, where the incumbent governor and Senator Omisore hail from, is usually keen because of the cumulative strength of the electorate. It is considered the largest of the three senatorial divisions of Osun in terms of land mass, with a population of over 1.2 million.
Personalities
One of the features that get the politics of the state ticking and exciting is the amalgam of political gladiators that have shown more than a passing interest in Osun. More indigenes of the state resident in other parts of the country, and who have distinguished themselves as professionals, either in the public or private sector, have keyed into the agenda of repositioning the state by being active players in party politics in Osun. Those who are categorised as Abuja politicians or Lagos politicians have joined the fray and indeed, giving those classified as home-based politicians a run for their money in the contest for political powers. Today, the Osun political arena has been made more vibrant and resourceful because of the roles and contributions of those people to horse trading. The major players include the incumbent state governor, Mr Aregbesola; immediate past governor, Prince Oyinlola; another former governor, Chief Bisi Akande, who doubles as the interim national chairman of the APC; former deputy governor of the state, Senator Omisore, just to name a few of the eminent politicians.
External factors
It is instructive that the activities of these politicians have brought other factors into play in the politics of the state. The friendship they had been able to establish over the years, especially the ‘foreign’ politicians have culminated in a broader networking. Apart from engaging political discourse that brought together the two class of politicians to converge on the state, the influence and role of external factors in the politics of the state have become more pronounced. Some individual politicians outside the state now wield immense influence in the power equation of the state. There is what is now referred as the Obasanjo factor. So also is the influence of the Presidency and the influence of the Lagos group, which is under the towering stature of an APC leader, Senator Bola Tinubu. All of them complement the political sagacity of the main stakeholders in the politics of Osun.
Emerging parties
In 1999, when the country returned to democracy, the AD dominated the political scene in the state. It controlled both the executive arm of government and had majority in the state House of Assembly. Besides, most of the members of the National Assembly from Osun were elected on the platform of AD. The election of 2003 altered the power configuration as the PDP made a substantial incursion into the state. The wind of change saw the defunct ACN displacing the PDP culminating in the current political power structure in Osun. However, more parties are beginning to make serious and remarkable impression in the state.
The presence of more political parties are beginning to manifest, as they have been able to attract some vibrant and energetic politicians into their fold, though a sizeable number of them still craved to remain anonymous for strategic reasons. According to sources, the LP appears to be one of the latest brides, as a number of political gladiators in the state have been linked to the party. Both the party’s headquarters and Ondo State, where the party dominates the political space, are said to be facilitating a grand plan to officially herald the inroads of the party in the state. All the parties have held a series of meetings in the last few weeks towards finalising all the arrangements for the big event.
There are indications that the resuscitated UPN and the Accord Party have lately stepped up all activities to register their presence across the local government areas of the state. The parties are individually deploying varying strategies to galvanise public support for their cause. For instance, the promoters of UPN have been bombarding people within and outside Osun, who are believed to be among stakeholders in the state, with text messages on the mission, vision and capability of the party. This is aside the series of media campaigns by them in both the print and the electronic media. On its part, the Accord Party is said to have embarked on grass root mobilisation because of its philosophy of collective responsibility, coupled with accountability.
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